Monte Carlo Masters 2025 - Tournament Preview and Analysis

The first clay Masters of the year is here, and with an abbreviated 1-week format and 56-player draw, there is some action-packed tennis awaiting us. This is a stacked draw, and here at Cross-Court tennis we are going to unpack it match-by-match and provide our very own preview, analysis and predictions for Monte Carlo 2025.

Alexander Zverev's Quarter

The World No. 2 is faced with an unforgiving draw in his journey to recapture some much-needed form.

Top Seeds: (1) Alexander Zverev, (6) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (10) Holger Rune, (13) Lorenzo Musetti

Projected Quarterfinal: Zverev vs Tsitsipas

Dark Horse: Lorenzo Musetti, Matteo Berrettini

Early Blockbuster: Lehecka vs Korda R1, Zverev vs Berrettini R2

Alexander Zverev is in dire need of form. Now the highest-ranked man in tennis following Sinner's suspension, the German has not lived up to any expectations whatsoever since the Australian Open. A straight-sets drubbing at the hands of Jannik himself in the final of the Sunshine Slam has seen Sascha deflated and sapped of any vitality. His forehand remains as spineless and fragile as ever, and he has only won 6 out of his last 11 matches, with defeats coming at the hands of Cerundolo, Comesana, Tien, Griekspoor and Fils. Can this poor run of form be simply attributed to the time of the year - a time which has historically been his worst - or is there something deeper at play? We may never know. But there is no doubt that Sinner's absence is playing at the back of his mind. With the World No. 1 spot in clear view, Zverev failed to perform under pressure yet again. Now, as the clay season approaches, Sascha has a chance to steady the ship. Unfortunately for him, the combination of a nightmare draw and one of his least favourite Masters events may spell disaster.

The top seed opens against either a qualifier or Matteo Berrettini. The Italian has experienced a resurgence of sorts, reaching the quarterfinals of Miami just recently. He put up a stellar performance against De Minaur in the Round of 16, recovering from 3-6 down in the second-set tiebreak, before falling to Fritz next round in a late-night thriller. But hardcourt is known to be Matteo's less preferred surface, because grass and clay are where he really shines. The Monte Carlo clay - the slowest clay there is, in fact - will give him plenty of time to employ the heavy artillery that he possesses. Berrettini is a dangerous floater in this draw and can give anyone a run for their money. Even if he does pass that test, however, Zverev's next adversary will most likely be Lorenzo Musetti. The 13th seed starts off against a qualifier in his first round before playing either Lehecka or Korda in R2. The Lehecka-Korda matchup will be intriguing, as these are high-quality opponents one would often see face off in the latter stages of a tournament, rather than the first round. However, neither has much of an affinity for clay; Lehecka is also in a bad rut of form (possibly struggling with injury?), and although Seb made the quarters in Miami, he is currently hampered by wrist pain. This is where I see Sascha falling. Musetti has a positive H2H record against Zverev, winning their last two meetings (the first of which came on Parisian clay at the Olympics). The Italian has tons of flair and variety, which can throw the lumbering German off his game. Moreover, Musetti has an exceptional record at Monte Carlo, and the ultra-slow surface allows him to turn into a brick wall at times. Zverev's serve will be nullified and his forehand will simply lack penetration on this dead clay. I don't think he can breach the creativity and defense of Musetti.

The other side of this quarter is occupied by none other than 3-time and defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas. As always, the Greek is vying for a deep run here in Monaco at risk of losing points and having a landslide down the rankings. In 2025, Tsitsipas has seen success by winning the title in Dubai, although slightly underperforming in the Sunshine Double. This is quite puzzling given how much the one-hander prefers slower conditions over fast, with Dubai being on the quicker side of things. Nevertheless, he is armed with a new racquet and is eager to make big strides at his favourite stop on tour. He begins either against Thompson or Mpetshi Perricard in his first match, the latter of whom will be left exposed with his biggest weapon - the serve - nerfed by the clay. But the Round of 16 is where Stef's first real roadblock lies. Holger Rune plays very well at Monte Carlo. The young Dane was a finalist in 2023 and was just eked out last year by World No. 1 Sinner in what was a blockbuster meeting. What's more, Rune actually knocked out Tsitsipas in straight sets at Indian Wells weeks ago - a desert derby with similar conditions to this. This is tough, given Rune's consistency day-in and day-out - or rather, lack of it. But 21-year-old seems to lean towards more composed, calculated tennis in these slower conditions, which is a good sign. Although it is a bold pick, I am backing him to extend further mastery over Tsitsipas this week by repeating the same slow and patient blueprint.

Rune has a 2-0 lead over Musetti in their head-to-head. Due to their outstanding histories at this venue, this matchup is a coin-flip. However, I trust Rune to keep his cool and progress to the semis. Hopefully, his run in California was a sign of things to come.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Rune d. Musetti

Novak Djokovic's Quarter

The 37-year-old is entering Monte Carlo on a high note for the first time in years - can he build off the good momentum?

Top Seeds: (3) Novak Djokovic, (8) Alex de Minaur, (9) Daniil Medvedev, (15) Grigor Dimitrov

Projected Quarterfinal: Djokovic vs De Minaur

Dark Horse: Sebastian Baez

Early Blockbuster: Medvedev vs Khachanov R1, Djokovic vs Wawrinka R2

A first-round exit at Indian Wells at the hands of lucky loser Botic van de Zandschulp spelled trouble for Novak Djokovic. In fact, it was the second year in a row that the Serb lost to a lucky loser in the Californian desert, having crashed out at the hands of Luca Nardi in 2024. Over the years, Novak's shortcomings during the March-April period have become glaringly apparent. Whether it be a lack of motivation, fitness, or general form, Djokovic continues to underperform over the span of the Sunshine Double to Monte Carlo, often saving his best tennis for Rome - or sometimes, even as late as Roland Garros. As a result, expectations were low in Miami - a venue where he hadn't competed at since 2019. But Nole made light work of the draw in Key Biscayne, powering his way through to the final before succumbing to teen sensation Jakub Mensik in two gruelling tiebreaks. Although he didn't end up getting his hands on the trophy, this uptick in level is definitely a good indication as preparations for Monte Carlo ramp up.

The 3rd seed, who is seeking his 100th tour-level title this week, will take on either Wawrinka or Tabilo in his opener. When we think about Djokovic-Wawrinka, we tend to reminisce upon their gladiatory battles spanning multiple grand slams. In particular, their cinema-worthy clashes at the Australian Open in 2013 and 2014, as well as the French Open in 2015 and the 2016 US Open, remain all-time classics. But these days, Wawrinka is reaching the denouement of his career and is but a shell of his former self. It is highly questionable whether the 40-year-old - that's right, 40 - will even have the stamina to endure his first round after a semi-deep run in Bucharest. Tabilo, who in fact bundled Djokovic out of Rome last year in a shock straight-sets upset, has won only two matches this year and is in some of the worst form of his life both mentally and tennis-wise. Therefore, the first round should be a breeze for the Djoker. The other pocket of this section is also a tame one, where the highest seed is Dimitrov. The Bulgarian simply does not have the tools to unsettle Djokovic, as evidenced by their fairly one-sided match in Miami earlier this year. Additionally, Dimitrov's fitness is also questionable at the moment given that he had to have his vitals checked and be carried around in a wheelchair immediately after his Miami marathon against Cerundolo. Jarry and Struff, while they can be potentially dangerous, are also both out of form.

Meanwhile, 9th seed Medvedev lies on the other side. The 6'6" Russian is having a horror year. He is fresh off a 6-2, 6-3, loss to Jaume Munar in Miami and the clay will only proliferate his sufferings. I do not see him passing the test of Karen Khachanov, who is an extremely formidable first-round opponent that actually beat him at this very venue last year in the Round of 16. Their matches are often very physical and taxing, and Medvedev just does not have the firepower or acceleration on his groundstrokes to affect Khachanov's repetitive baseline rhythm; he is low on confidence, and this "sssurface" will only make proceedings worse. Instead, I am expecting 8th seed Alex de Minaur to progress to the quarterfinal stage. While the tenacious Aussie used to be a nonfactor on clay in years past, he is slowly but surely building a solid resume on the dirt by reaching the quarters of Roland Garros last year as well as the quarterfinals here in Monte Carlo. He has a tricky opening match against either Tomas Machac or Sebastian Baez, though. The former is an uber-talented player, however he has been struggling with injuries and illness as of late. This has resulted in retirements left, right and centre. Baez is another clay specialist who thrives during the South American swing. Although he does not have the best results at the Monte Carlo Country Club, he is coming off a strong run to the Bucharest final. He has an astonishing 7 career titles already, and they are all on clay. If he is not too exhausted from his exploits in Romania, I can see him upsetting De Minaur, who was not at his best in the Sunshine Double. However, this is unlikely, and I am backing Demons's flourishing knack for this surface to prevail.

This is a familiar matchup as it took place just last year at the very same stage. Novak dominated the meeting in straight sets, as De Minaur's flat groundstrokes did minimal damage on the clay. However, the Aussie is a grinder, and Djokovic's general fitness is declining sharply as we saw in the Miami final. The slow conditions will make extended rallies even more agonising for the older man. In the end, I expect the Serb's pedigree and experience to come out on top though.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Djokovic d. De Minaur

Casper Ruud's Quarter

Last year's finalist has work to do after a shaky start to 2025.

Top Seeds: (4) Casper Ruud, (5) Jack Draper, (11) Ben Shelton, (14) Frances Tiafoe

Projected Quarterfinal: Ruud vs Draper

Dark Horse: Denis Shapovalov

Early Blockbuster: Shelton vs Davidovich Fokina R1, Draper vs Shapovalov R2

Casper Ruud, the defending finalist, is still searching for any form of consistency on hardcourts. Although the start of 2025 was better than previous years, what with a magnificent showing at the United Cup and a final at the Dallas Indoors, he is still yet to make any big strides on the surface following his breakout run at the US Open 3 years back. Mindbogglingly, he remains ranked at No. 6 in the world. Nonetheless, he returns to happy hunting ground this week to try and turn things around on his most beloved surface.

The Norwegian has the benefit of a relatively kind draw here. He begins his campaign against either Bautista Agut or Nakashima. Although he is Spanish, Bautista Agut's gamestyle and flat, laser-like groundstrokes are not suited to clay at all, and his level is only dimishing further with age. On the other hand, Nakashima has just made the semifinals in Houston and will be exhausted from his feats. Frances Tiafoe, the 14th seed, has never played Monte Carlo in his life and may very well withdraw following a run to the final in Houston. The entertaining American has never had quite a liking for clay, and will be more than happy to pull out of the only non-mandatory Masters event of the year, following in the footsteps of fellow compatriots Paul and Fritz. Ugo Humbert is also another surface-dependent player, whose general ability fluctuates wildly depending on the conditions. His skiddy groundstrokes are not heavy enough to do damage at this venue. Alexei Popyrin has also underperformed severely after the US Open last year and has failed to post any significant results. All in all, the path to the quarterfinal looks comfy for Ruud.

The seeds in the other side of this quarter are all less accustomed to clay too. 5th seed Jack Draper has had an explosive last month or so, clinching his maiden Masters 1000 crown in Indian Wells before losing to eventual champion Mensik in Miami - no shame in that loss. However, he sports a modest 45% career win percentage on clay, and it is his least favourite surface by far. Although he has quite a topspin-heavy forehand, he is yet to take full advantage of it on the dirt. Could this be the year he has his big clay breakthrough? The Brit is slated to play either Marcos Giron or Denis Shapovalov in his first match. Giron used to have Shapo's number in their H2H, but the Canadian recently got his first win against him in Acapulco. I believe this will be a hard-fought encounter with Shapovalov's talent eventually triumphing. This is the first time Denis is playing at Monte Carlo since 2019, but he does have an impressive catalogue on clay, especially Rome, where he has beaten Nadal in 2022 and reached the semifinals in 2020. However, the French Open is his worst slam, and he generally tends to perform worse on slower surfaces than faster ones. In the end, I am picking him to be my dark horse because I believe that his swinging lefty serve and newfound confidence in 2025 can wreak havoc on these courts. Ben Shelton is yet another lefty in action in this area of the draw. Like Draper, clay is his worst surface, and he also has a losing record on it. I am siding with Davidovich Fokina to knock Shelton out in the first round. The Spaniard is as determined as ever after reaching back-to-back finals at Delray Beach and Acapulco. Ultimately, I am picking Shapo to advance to the quarterfinals.

This quarterfinal would be a fascinating one, because Ruud and Shapovalov have played twice on clay, and although the former has won both of those meetings in straight sets, they have been pretty close and have both involved first-set tiebreaks that went down to the wire. Casper is much more accomplished on this surface, and his loopier groundstrokes boast more margin and venom than the Canadian's on clay. This is why I am picking him to go all the way to the semis once more.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Ruud d. Shapovalov

Carlos Alcaraz's Quarter

The Spaniard needs a good start to the clay-court season after a disappointing Sunshine Double.

Top Seeds: (2) Carlos Alcaraz, (7) Andrey Rublev, (12) Arthur Fils, (16) Felix Auger-Aliassime

Projected Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs Rublev

Dark Horse: Gael Monfils, Tallon Griekspoor, Francisco Cerundolo

Early Blockbuster: Griekspoor vs Fils R1, Alcaraz vs Cerundolo R2, Monfils vs Rublev R2

Carlos Alcaraz has his fans concerned right now. The youngster seems to be losing some of the magic that propelled him to the peak of the game a couple of years ago, and his lack of consistency is troubling to say the least. Each of his performances sees unforced errors sprayed all over the place, and worryingly, the smile seems to be fading from his face. The Spaniard needs to bring back the creativity in his game - an aspect that is celebrated worldwide - while maintaining unwavering focus on court. While he was poised to win Indian Wells for the third time in a row, he put up a lacklustre performance in the semifinals against Jack Draper. This was followed by another shocking display against David Goffin in R1 of Miami. Most importantly, he needs to improve his serve, because the new service motion does not seem to be working at the moment. He also needs to tone down the errors. Hopefully, the Monte Carlo clay will buy him enough time to execute his game plan more clearly.

The second seed has an extremely challenging opening match, because it will most likely be against Francisco Cerundolo. The dynamic Argentine reached back-to-back quarterfinals in both Indian Wells and Miami, and when his forehand is firing, he is one of the top competitors on tour. Although he lost to Alcaraz in the quarters of Indian Wells, he was primed to take the second set from a break up before a brief mental blip that cost him the match. Right now, the 26-year-old is playing the tennis of his life, and his lethal forehand has the ability to rush Carlos when he takes huge cuts at the ball. Moreover, the ultra-slow conditions will also provide him more time to use that wing. However, I believe that the deadened conditions will favour Alcaraz more. This is because while the Spaniard is prone to being rushed on faster surfaces, the Monte Carlo clay will mask these deficiencies and give him more time to respond to the Cerundolo aggression. I also believe that his relentless defense will extract some costly errors from the Argentine's racquet. Next, he is projected to play Auger-Aliassime, but I think it will be Arnaldi instead due to the Canadian's weakness on clay. In the end I think Carlos will reach the quarters comfortably after a tough opening match.

The 7th seed here is Andrey Rublev. The Russian is in a perplexing state of affairs, given that he manages to win one or two titles a year to keep himself afloat, yet somehow seems to lose more first-round matches than I can count. He mentioned that he was dealing with some unattended elbow pain, however, which could explain the steep loss of velocity on his once-feared forehand wing. Recently, he took Marat Safin on board his team. While I do hope that this new addition will prove beneficial in the future, I think it is too soon to see any stark improvements. This is why I am picking Rublev to crash out at the hands of Monfils in his first round, another veteran who is experiencing a resurgence at the closing stages of his career. The other section here sees 12th seed Fils take on Tallon Griekspoor in a blockbuster match. Like Cerundolo, Fils reached back-to-back quarterfinals in the Sunshine Double, and Griekspoor is currently in the final of Marrakech. This promises to be a tasty, hotly contested faceoff. In the end, I am picking Fils to continue his exciting form, as he is one of the few that possesses the kind of brutish firepower required to blast through these courts.

Alcaraz and Fils have never played before. I think that Carlos will find a new gear this week to prove everyone wrong, as he so often plays his best when there is no pressure. His creativity will foil Arthur's one-dimensional barrage and I expect the Spaniard to return to his best once more.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz d. Fils

Semifinal Predictions

Rune def. Djokovic in 3

Alcaraz def. Ruud in 2

Final Prediction

Alcaraz def. Rune in 3

Thank you for reading this preview. For more information on the Monte Carlo Masters, head to the 'Tournaments' page.

View the full draw here 👇 (via Tennis TV - Twitter)