Australian Open 2025 - Tournament Preview and Analysis

The Australian Open is here! After an infamously short off-season as always, expect fresh summer vibes in the sunshine-soaked state of Melbourne. With the players recharged and recalibrated, there will be plenty of electric tennis at the Rod Laver Arena. Alcaraz, Djokovic and Zverev have landed on the same side of the draw, with the likes of Sinner, Medvedev and Fritz occupying the other half.

Here at Cross-Court Tennis, we're going to unpack this intriguing draw and provide our very own preview, analysis and prediction on what's going to happen this fortnight at Australian Open 2025.

Jannik Sinner's Quarter

The World No. 1 had a meteoric rise to the pinnacle of men's tennis in 2024, resulting in a season of unprecedented standards. Can he maintain his dominance? Or will the magic start to wear off?

Top Seeds: (1) Jannik Sinner, (8) Alex de Minaur, (11) Stefanos Tsitsipas, (13) Holger Rune, (18) Hubert Hurkacz, (19) Karen Khachanov, (31) Francisco Cerundolo, (32) Flavio Cobolli

Projected Quarterfinal: Sinner vs De Minaur

Dark Horse: Matteo Berrettini

Early Blockbuster: Hurkacz vs Griekspoor R1, Berrettini vs Norrie R1, Rune vs Zhang R1, Tsitsipas vs Michelsen R1

Jannik Sinner took the world by storm in 2024. By winning his maiden Grand Slam title here at the Australian Open, the Italian finished the year with 7 more titles - including another Slam the US Open - and a mindblowing 90% win percentage. Although his on-court brilliance has cemented himself in the tennis hall of fame already, his off-court life has been marred by controversy. Two failed doping tests have attracted plenty of criticism and skepticism from a whole host of characters - including a certain Nick Kyrgios - and he could face anywhere from a 6-month to a whopping 2-year ban for this. However, the final verdict of the trial is yet to be released, and things look calm for the timebeing. Instead of letting this noise get to his head, however, the defending champion has let his tennis do the talking. Can he recapture the Melbourne crown this time around?

As the top seed, Sinner has the comfort of a relatively tame draw. His campaign starts off against Nicolas Jarry. Although the Chilean possesses tons of firepower, he often lacks refinement. His consistency will fluctuate over the course of five sets, and his huge serve will be neutralised easily by Sinner's world-class returning. In the second round, Jannik is projected to face either Schoolkate or Daniel, neither of whom have the ballstriking required to challenge him. Flavio Cobolli lies in wait as the first seed he may face; however, he is facing injury concerns of his own after retiring in Auckland, and may even fall to Etcheverry in his opener.

Hubert Hurkacz takes on Griekspoor in what could be a thrilling first-round faceoff. The Pole is under new management, hiring Ivan Lendl and Nicolas Massu to steer his game to new heights. He has also undergone a surprising racket change from Yonex to Wilson. Holger Rune also lies in this pocket of the draw. The temperamental 13th seed has been experiencing a slump as of late, often lacking patience and a coherent game plan. A first-round encounter against Zhang will definitely test his point-construction ability. His second-round match will be against either Berrettini or Norrie. Both of these players were once in the top-ten, but have declined mightily. Although Berrettini can deal damage to anyone on his day, his record on outdoor hard courts is subpar, and he may even lose to Norrie. The Brit has a grinder mentality, and will punish the Berrettini backhand with his lefty forehand until it gives way. Even if Matteo does get past that hurdle, however, expect him to fall short at the hands of Rune, who beat him just recently at the Shanghai Masters. In the third round, I expect Hurkacz and Rune to collide, but the Pole to triumph because of his discipline. However, he will lose at the next stage to Sinner.

On the other side of this quarter, Tsitsipas takes on Michelsen in another match to keep an eye on. Stefanos is prone to upset these days, and although the Australian Open is one of his favourite destinations on tour, anything is possible with the form he's in right now. However, he should progress. Although other seeds stand out - such as Khachanov and Cerundolo - the most likely fourth-round clash here will be De Minaur vs Tsitsipas. The Aussie has transformed into a new player over this past year, bringing a newfound aggression to his game while maintaining his otherworldly footspeed. This has earned him a Top 8 spot in the world rankings. However, I do expect him to fall to Tsitsipas eventually. The Greek has an 11-1 record against the Aussie, and although he lost his last match against him, that was on the slow courts of Acapulco. The faster conditions in Melbourne suit Stef's game much better, and his front-foot tennis will overwhelm the Demon.

Tsitsipas and Sinner have faced off twice already at this venue, with the Greek getting the better of the Italian on both occasions. However, Jannik is an entirely different beast nowadays, and should reach the semifinals easily.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Sinner d. Tsitsipas

Taylor Fritz's Quarter

The American followed up his best season yet with a career-high ranking, and is now looking to muscle his way through a dangerous draw.

Top Seeds: (4) Taylor Fritz, (5) Daniil Medvedev, (9) Andrey Rublev, (16) Lorenzo Musetti, (17) Frances Tiafoe, (21) Ben Shelton, (25) Alexei Popyrin, (30) Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Projected Quarterfinal: Fritz vs Medvedev

Dark Horse: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard

Early Blockbuster: Rublev vs Fonseca R1, Monfils vs Mpetshi Perricard R1, Shelton vs Nakashima R1, Musetti vs Arnaldi R1

Did anybody expect Taylor Fritz to secure a World No. 4 ranking? Although he was always good, the American struggled in taking the next step to reach the highest echelons of the sport. His gamestyle was often too one-dimensional, and his movement was another serious issue. But in 2024, everything changed; Fritz made slight tweaks to his game, all while steadily increasing the quality of his serve and groundstrokes. This launched him to a first-ever Grand Slam final at the US Open, before seeing him reach the final of the Nitto ATP Finals. Although he was unable to get across the finish line on both occasions - losing to Jannik Sinner - the Californian has a lot to be proud of.

Fritz takes on fellow American Jenson Brooksby in his opening match. Brooksby, who recently revealed that he struggles with autism, has a quirky gamestyle, and is returning to the tour after a year-long ban for missing three doping tests. He will be rusty, and does not have the weapons to unsettle someone of Taylor's calibre. Fritz's next opponent will either be qualifier and clay-court specialist Garin or Borna Coric, the latter of which he beat convincingly just last week at the United Cup. The Round of 32, however, is when things start to get tricky. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, the 6'7" Frenchman and 30th seed, is looking to shake things up. GMP captured two titles last year, including ATP 500 Basel, and reached the semifinals of Brisbane a week ago. His serve is obviously his main weapon, but he also sports a surprising amount of athleticism for someone of his size. He will lock horns with compatriot Monfils in his opener, who is ever the entertainer. However, Monfils is also currently in the semifinals of Auckland, and I doubt the 38-year-old can keep his fitness up to compete well at the Open. He will be too exhuasted from his feats in New Zealand to oust the big-server. In the end, however, I expect Fritz to be too skilled of a baseliner for Mpetshi Perricard to conquer.

Ben Shelton, meanwhile, is on upset alert early on. The mercurial man from Atlanta has a questionable rally tolerance, which will be sternly tested by someone as solid as Nakashima, his fellow American who will also be his first-round opponent. An Italian derby will also take place nearby between 16th seed Musetti and Arnaldi. Both of these men have flashy games, and it could be a rollercoaster encounter given Musetti's disdain for the hard courts. I am actually backing Brandon Nakashima here to reach the fourth round. But although he beat Fritz in Cincinnati last year, I'm siding with Taylor this time around to perform when the stakes are higher.

Perhaps the most anticipated first-round encounter of the lot, however, comes with Andrey Rublev slated against teen phenomenon Joao Fonseca. The 18-year-old first announced himself at Rio last year by reaching the quarters. Since then, he had been toughing it out on the challenger circuit. But then things changed; Fonseca won the Next Gen Finals in December without dropping a set. Right now, Joao is on a 14-match winning streak coming into the main draw. The passionate Brasilian produces mammoth power from both wings, much like his first-round adversary Rublev. However, we must keep in mind that he is only 18 years of age. Although he is destined to do great things in the future, I doubt that his fitness will hold up right now to compete over five sets. I expect Rublev to reach the fourth round, taking out Tiafoe on the way, whose form is scrappy.

Medvedev occupies the other half of this quarter. After reaching the final here last year, the Russian had an extremely underwhelming season, but still managed to finish Number 5 in the world. He faces the unknown Thai wildcard Samrej in his campaign-starter, before taking on either Ugo Carabelli or Tien in his next round. Although Tien did reach the Next Gen Finals last year alongside Fonseca, his game is not developed enough yet to cause any trouble here. Medvedev's projected opponent in the Round of 32 is Alexei Popyrin. The bruising Aussie had a career-best year in 2024, winning a Masters 1000 in Canada before dumping Novak Djokovic out of the US Open. In fact, he beat Daniil at the Paris Masters too. However, I am expecting the sly Russian to wear Poppy down over the course of five sets. In the Round of 16, we will see a familiar encounter between two good friends Rublev and Medvedev. Unfortunately for the former, this is a nightmare matchup for him; Medvedev leads their H2H 7-2. Although Rublev has brutish power, he does not possess enough variety to disrupt Medvedev's rhythm, and Daniil is too good of a counterpuncher to lose at his own game.

This quarterfinal matchup happened very recently, with Fritz triumphing over Medvedev at the Nitto ATP Finals in straight sets. However, the scoreline was actually closer than it seemed, and it looked like Medvedev was actually getting the better of Fritz in most of the rallies. However, it was the serve that ultimately cost the Russian, who served 3 consecutive double faults to lose the first set. Here in Australia, however, I suspect that things will be different. Medvedev typically raises the bar in Slams, and will draw Fritz into many taxing rallies. Stylistically, this is not the ideal matchup for the American.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Medvedev d. Fritz

Carlos Alcaraz's Quarter

The talented Spaniard is on the hunt to complete the Career Grand Slam at just 21 years of age.

Top Seeds: (3) Carlos Alcaraz, (7) Novak Djokovic, (10) Grigor Dimitrov, (15) Jack Draper, (22) Sebastian Korda, (24) Jiri Lehecka, (26) Tomas Machac, (27) Jordan Thompson

Projected Quarterfinal: Alcaraz vs Djokovic

Dark Horse: Tomas Machac, Jiri Lehecka

Early Blockbuster: Djokovic vs Basavareddy R1, Draper vs Kokkinakis R2

Carlos Alcaraz is on the quest for a Career Grand Slam, and the final piece of the puzzle lies here in Australia. Let's get things straight: the condtions in Melbourne don't suit him as well as they can. With second and third-round exits in 2021 and 2022 respectively, the Spaniard missed out on the season-starting Slam in 2023 with injury. However, he came back with a bang last year. Roaring through the first four rounds, Carlos looked primed to go even further - until he ran into Zverev. With a combination of impossibly impeccable serving and redlining groundstrokes, the German produced a masterclass to dethrone Alcaraz that day. The lightning-quick court speed only augmented Alcaraz's difficulties. Although the conditions at the Australian Open have played a large role in eluding the World No. 3, perhaps the lack of matchplay has also been a crucial factor, leaving the Spaniard rusty and unprepared. For him to find success this time, Carlos must start strong.

Thankfully, he has an extremely kind draw this year. He takes on Alexander Shevchenko in his first round, before running into either Nishioka or qualifier Dougaz. His third round doesn't get any harder either, with his highest projected seed being home hope Jordan Thompson. Although the crafty Aussie will be egged on by a vocal crowd, he simply lacks the weapons to disturb the Spaniard's authoritative presence. But the Round of 16 is when real danger lurks. Jack Draper, the 15th seed who reached the US Open semis last year, awaits. After a comfortable opener against Navone, the Brit could square off against local hero Kokkinakis. These two produced an absolute thriller last year at Los Cabos, following it up with another three-set classic that went down to the wire at Madrid. However, Kokkinakis seems to be dealing with a nagging hip injury, pulling out of Brisbane and the Adelaide quarterfinals. I don't see his body holding up in the best-of-five format. While Draper will most likely reach the fourth round, his run will end at the hands of Carlos. There is some evidence to suggest against this, though; in fact, Draper routed Alcaraz in straight sets at Queen's Club last season. But Grand Slam matches are a different animal altogether, and Jack's body might give up on him under the unforgiving Aussie heat.

The other side of the draw sees Novak Djokovic as the 7th seed. It seems like age might finally be catching up to the 10-time AO champion. After being knocked out at the semifinal stage last year, the Serb had a disappointing season. Although he looked to turn things around this year in Brisbane, he was manhandled by Reilly Opelka, whose unreturnable serve and flat, booming groundstrokes caught fire that day. Although widely regarded as the greatest returner of all time, Novak could not lay a finger on the American's first delivery. And to spell even more trouble, guess who Novak's potential third-round opponent is? That's right. Opelka himself. However, I don't see this matchup materialising. Opelka sustained two different injuries in Brisbane and had to retire from the final. Unfortunately, his body doesn't look like it will go far at this year's Open. Instead, I believe Djokovic's third-round opponent will be Tomas Machac. The dark horse Czech possesses insane power for his size, and reaches even the most impossible of balls with his court-coverage. But he too has fitness issues. After leading Fritz healthily in their United Cup semifinal just last week, the Czech fell victim to debilitating cramps and retired almost instantaneously. It is improbable that he will last through three rounds of the sizzling Melbourne summer. Novak will start his campaign against college tennis player Nishesh Basavareddy. The American is currently in his first tour semifinal in Auckland, and strikes the ball cleanly. But clean won't be enough to topple Djokovic, who should swat him aside with relative ease.

Grigor Dimitrov is the 10th seed and serves as the Serb's projected fourth-round adversary. However, he too is injured at the moment. I believe that Jiri Lehecka will rise to the occasion instead. The young Czech is a calculated man who strikes the ball with measured aggression. Although his career has been plagued with a serious back injury, he is super underrated and can take the racket out of anyone's hands. He showcased this brilliantly by winning the Brisbane International to start 2025. Once again, though, I am counting on Novak's experience to pull through to the quarters.

This quarterfinal match will be the most interesting of the lot. For me, it is essentially a coin-flip. This is because although Djokovic is out of form at the moment, anything can happen here at his favourite Slam, especially given his Spanish opponent's shortcomings at this venue. Although I will give the edge to Alcaraz's youth here, we can't count Novak out just yet.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Alcaraz d. Djokovic

Alexander Zverev's Quarter

Can Sascha finally break his Grand Slam duck with the help of a soft draw? Or will his nerves betray him yet again?

Top Seeds: (2) Alexander Zverev, (6) Casper Ruud, (12) Tommy Paul, (14) Ugo Humbert, (20) Arthur Fils, (23) Alejandro Tabilo, (28) Sebastian Baez, (29) Felix Auger-Aliassime

Projected Quarterfinal: Zverev vs Ruud

Dark Horse: Nick Kyrgios, Kei Nishikori

Early Blockbuster: Shang vs Davidovich Fokina R1, Struff vs Auger-Aliassime R1, Ruud vs Mensik R2, Paul vs Nishikori R2

I know this has been said a number of times before, but: is this finally the time Alexander Zverev breaks his Slam curse? It's hard not to think so given how merciful his draw looks. The German begins against French wildcard Lucas Pouille. Pouille, who reached the semifinals of the AO back in 2019, has seen his career riddled with injuries. Now, he is just a shell of his former self, and his weight of shot has severely declined; this will leave him no chance of taking down Zverev. Alexander will then come up against either Darderi or Martinez, two men who thrive on clay. Gone are the days where Sascha drags himself into unnecessary five-setters during the early stages of slams; nowadays, the World No. 2 is much more clinical with his proceedings. But the third round is where things may start to get very, very interesting.

Occupying the other side of this little section is none other than Nick Kyrgios himself - the man, the myth, the legend. Although he is one of the most talented players to step foot on a tennis court, these days Nick finds himself whiling away his time by taking rather one-sided jabs at Jannik Sinner and his doping controversies. His tennis has taken a firm back seat. In fact, these last two years have been injuries galore for the Aussie bad boy. After being sidelined for so long, these injuries seemed to have flared up again during his match against Mpetshi Perricard in Brisbane. While his wrist issues resurfaced, with him claiming that his wrist "will never be the same" again, another health setback came to light - a Grade 1 abdominal strain. If all this pain occurs after just one match at an ATP 250, how will Kyrgios ever hope to navigate the trials and tribulations of Grand Slam tennis? He would be lucky to even get past the first round with the poor shape that he is in right now. In his opener, the Aussie will come up against Jacob Fearnley. The Brit is no pushover, having gone on a tear of challenger tour title wins last year. If Nick does progress, he will most likely play Arthur Cazaux in the second round. The Frenchman reached the fourth round here last year, and will probably take out Baez in his first round because of how much the Argentinian hates these hard courts. Cazaux has a surprisingly thunderous serve for his height. But if Kyrgios wins this match, then the blockbuster will come - a shot at the 2nd seed Zverev. The talent is there, no doubt - but I just can't see the body holding up any further for the home hero and his legion of fans.

After this, Zverev has a breezy Round of 16, with his highest projected seed being Ugo Humbert. The German dispatched Humbert easily in the Paris final last year. The other half of this quarter is more unpredictable. It is home to Tommy Paul, who could very well enter the Top Ten this week if he goes further in Adelaide. The American might lock horns with Kei Nishikori in the second round, which will set off fireworks for sure. Auger-Aliassime also resides here, opening his campaign against Jan-Lennard Struff. Although Struff doesn't have the best resume at Slams, he is always dangerous in these early rounds. I could see him springing an upset. Elsewhere, Jerry Shang also takes on Davidovich Fokina in what seems to be a tantalising prospect between two dynamic players. The number 6 seed Casper Ruud rounds off this section. He could run into Jakub Mensik in his second round, who is one of the most exciting teen prospects at the moment. I am backing Jakub for the win there, given the Norwegian's lack of consistency on the hard courts.

Ultimately, I am choosing Paul as my quarterfinalist. Tommy's game is perfectly suited to these conditions. However, he will fall short at this stage to Zverev. The power discrepancy here is too glaring, and although the American's guile may cause some bumps along the road, Zverev should see it through.

Quarterfinal Prediction: Zverev d. Paul

Semifinal Predictions

Sinner def. Medvedev in 4

Zverev def. Alcaraz in 5

Final Prediction

Sinner def. Zverev in 4

Thank you for reading this preview. For more information on the Australian Open, head to the 'Tournaments' page.

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