Australian Open 2025 - Round of 16 (Day 1) Predictions

Carlos Alcaraz takes on 15th seed Jack Draper for the first time since Queen's last year, in a rematch that is sure to ignite fireworks. Meanwhile, Novak Djokovic, Tommy Paul and Alexander Zverev are also in action.

Paul vs Davidovich Fokina

What a week Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is having. Although widely renowned as one of the most talented and dynamic players on the men's circuit, his lack of mental fortitude has often seen to his downfall. This week, however, he seems to have vanquished his mental demons; the Spaniard has rallied back from two-sets-to-love down in two consecutive matches to clinch the win. By doing so, he becomes the first man in 20 years to accomplish such a feat at the Australian Open. In his opener, he squared off against Jerry Shang in one of the most notable first-round matches at this year's AO. Although the encounter promised high-octane ballstriking, horror struck for Shang, who had to retire at the end of the second set. The Chinese has developed quite a knack for health problems, having to retire from his last three events. In the following round, ADF came up against last week's Adelaide champion Auger-Aliassime. It looked like Felix was finally rediscovering some of the form that propelled him to the Top Ten a couple of years ago, grabbing his first ever outdoor hardcourt title at the Australian city. Moreover, the Canadian had also just upset World No. 4 Fritz recently at the United Cup in three brilliant sets. But Davidovich Fokina did not let the weight of the moment faze him. After losing two, down-to-the-wire tiebreaks, the Spaniard showed grit and resolve by taking the next three sets convincingly. In a match between two players prone to mental lapses, it was the Spaniard who overcame his demons as Auger-Aliassime faltered late into the night. But things didn't get any easier in the Round of 32. Down two-sets-to-love down again against teen sensation Jakub Mensik - who had put on a dominant display to knock out 6th seed Casper Ruud in his previous round - Fokina was facing another uphill battle. Could he pull off the impossible? Yes, he could. After saving multiple match points in the third set tiebreaker, he roared to the finish line in a dazzling exhibition of resilience, with Mensik's stamina waning.

Tommy Paul, meanwhile, has not been at his best this Open. Paul - the highest seeded American left in the draw after Taylor Fritz's loss - sustained a nasty shoulder injury in his opening match against home hope O'Connell. He failed to serve out the match in the fourth set, spraying uncharacterisitic errors as his opponent dragged the match to a fifth set. Nonetheless, Tommy's experience shined to triumph. In his next round, he came up against veteran Nishikori. In this match, Paul fought not only against Nishikori, but also the elements; it was an abysmally windy day. But after dropping the first set, Paul was authoritative in taming his opponent as well as the wind. His fourth round match saw him come up against clay-courter Carballes Baena, and he made light work of it.

These two last played each other at the US Open in 2023. Paul started the match in bruising form, taking the first two sets 6-1, 6-0. Although the Spaniard mounted a late comeback by grabbing the third set, it was too little, too late. The American has much more experience at Grand Slam level than Fokina. I believe that Tommy's crafty game, combined with his mettle, will disrupt ADF, leading to a cozy win. Although Fokina might sneak in a set, he will not have enough gas left in the tank to compete much longer.

Prediction: Paul in 4

Alcaraz vs Draper

Carlos Alcaraz has been merciless so far in Melbourne. As he hunts for the elusive Career Grand Slam, the 3rd seed has not let the gravity of the occasion distract him. Although he was shaky in his early rounds in his last three slams, dropping sets left, right and centre, the Spaniard has brought a new level of ruthless efficiency to dispatch his opponents this Australian summer. Carlos blazed through his first two rounds without any major blips, getting the better of Alexander Shevchenko and then Yoshihito Nishioka. In his third round, he locked horns with Nuno Borges. The Portugese often has his best Slam runs at the Australian Open, reaching the fourth round here last year by upsetting Grigor Dimitrov en route. He caused another slight upset against local hero Jordan Thompson in the Round of 64, swatting the Aussie aside in straight sets. However, he was no match for the power and creativity of Alcaraz. Although he did well to squeeze in a set, Alcaraz ultimately reigned supreme. Nonetheless, the match was one of the more entertaining encounters of the tournament so far, filled with fun rallies. All in all, the focus Carlos is showing us this week is simply astonishing.

Jack Draper's path to the fourth round, however, has not been as straightforward. The Brit is proving to the tennis world that his fitness issues are a thing of the past, pushing his way through three consecutive five-setters in the stifling Melbourne heat to book his Round of 16 spot. Although widely known for his body of glass, Draper has transformed into Iron Man here, spending a dizzying 12 hours and 34 minutes on court so far. Jack has also shown great courage and determination, recovering from two-sets-to-one down in all three of his matches, with his last one against Vukic ending in a breathtaking super-tiebreak. The 15th seed has been the epitome of clutchness, navigating his way through his fare share of tight moments to earn his a showdown against Alcaraz. But there is a negative side to this: Draper made things way harder than they needed to be. In his spellbinding run to the US Open semifinals, the Brit did not drop a single set on his way to the semis, dismissing the likes of De Minaur and Machac all in straights. But it seems like he is hellbent on making life difficult for himself at this year's AO, pulling himself into unnecessary five-setters; three of them. If we look at the bigger picture, Jack isn't playing his best tennis - instead, it's been his mental strength that's seen him through. In fact, he was sidelined with a hip injury at the start of 2025, leaving him with little time to practice in the off-season. And the rust has been glaring so far this week. Unfortunately, this bodes bad news for him this round.

Draper last played Alcaraz at Queen's Club last year. In this match, Jack upset Carlos in straight sets, much to the delight of his home crowd. However, circumstances were different back then; the Spaniard was coming off a taxing run to the French Open title, and it was his first match on grass of 2024. People were quick to jump to conclusions, though, declaring Draper as one of the favourites for Wimbledon. But although the Brit lost to Cameron Norrie in the second round, Alcaraz went on to clinch the trophy. I believe that this match will be relatively easy for Carlos. For Draper to stand any remote chance, he must come out of the blocks firing. He will be hoping to finish this match in three or four sets before his body starts to give way. I just don't see this happening. Ultimately, Alcaraz's level is far too strong at the moment, and the toll of Draper's fifteen-set run will catch up to him here.

Prediction: Alcaraz in 4

Zverev vs Humbert

Alexander Zverev has been clinical this week. By landing in quite a tame section of the draw, the 2nd seed has not faced too many issues so far in Melbourne. Although there was a minor injury cloud circling him before the Open, with him pulling out of the United Cup due to a bicep strain, these uncertainties have been swept aside. His opener came against Lucas Pouille. The Frenchman was severely underpowered in this matchup, although Zverev was not at his best; the German conjured up 18 break points, but only capitalised on 3 of them. Nonetheless, it was a routine victory. His next adversary was clay-court specialist Pedro Martinez. Although Martinez started the match promisingly, mixing in great variety and drawing the tall German to thet net, he lost his way as the encounter progressed. Sascha's serving, as usual, was a dominant force in this meeting. He then ran into Jacob Fearnley, the Scottish phenomenon that was causing a lot of noise on the Challenger Tour. Although Scotsman was yet to prove himself at ATP level, the transition was seamless at just his second Grand Slam appearance. Last year at Wimbledon, Fearnley ended up taking a set off eventual finalist Novak Djokovic in the second round, sending shockwaves throughout the tennis world. This time around, he eliminated one of the biggest dark horses in the tournament in his first round: Nick Kyrgios. Once again, fitness proved to be the Achilles Heel of the incredibly talented Aussie, as abdominal issues hindered him significantly. Fearnley did extremely well to navigate the obstreperous crowd on John Cain Arena, knocking their hero out in three compelling sets of tennis. Ultimately, however, Jacob was no match for Zverev, whose superior weight of shot dictated rallies.

On the other hand, Ugo Humbert has been a bit patchy so far. Although he came out on top against Matteo Gigante in his first match of the event, it was a cagey affair, as the Frenchman made things closer than they needed to be. His following round saw him go up against Hady Habib. Habib had become the first ever Lebanese man to qualify for a Grand Slam main draw, backing this achievement up with a stunning straight sets victory over Yunchaokete Bu in the Round of 128. Fuelled by raucous throngs of Lebanese supporters, the atmosphere when taking on Humbert on Court 3 was nothing short of electric. However, Hady's lack of experience showed, as Ugo blocked out the noise and advanced wihout much trouble. The third round was highly anticipated, as he took on compatriot Arthur Fils in a rematch of their Tokyo final, where Fils saved match point en route to the trophy. In this meeting, both Frenchmen battled it out in a topsy-turvy affair. However, Fils picked up an ankle injury and was forced to retire just one game into the fourth set, leading to a disappointing end to the match.

These two last squared off just months ago in the Paris Masters final. Although it was an encounter that garnered a lot of hype - what with Humbert upsetting Alcaraz earlier on in a thrilling match-of-the-year contender - it did not live up to it. Instead, Zverev dispatched Humbert convincingly for the loss of just four games. The fast surface helped accelerate the damage on the German's forehand wing, while Humbert no doubt succumbed to the nerves of a first ever Masters final. Another shocking stat reveals that Zverev is on a 26-match win streak against lefties. He just favours the forehand to backhand dynamic way too much for the southpaws to unsettle him. Since Humbert will be the toughest opponent Zverev will face all year, I will give him the benefit of the set; however, in the end, it will be smooth sailing for the World No. 2.

Prediction: Zverev in 4

Djokovic vs Lehecka

Jiri Lehecka has translated his form beautifully from Brisbane to Melbourne. Although gifted with two retirements in both the semifinal and final from defending champ Dimitrov and Opelka respectively, it was a strong showing nonetheless to start off his season. The Czech, underrated as ever, produced his best Grand Slam result to date here at the Australian Open, knocking out the likes of Norrie and Auger Aliassime en route to a quarterfinal berth. This week, he has been flawless in these lively conditions. He came through a four-set battle to start off his campaign against the inspired wildcard Li Tu, before butting heads with the entertainer that is Hugo Gaston. Unfortunately, Jiri was handed yet another retirement from the Frenchman. Lehecka then faced another French adversary in Benjamin Bonzi. Bonzi won his maiden title in Metz at the end of last year, and reached the quarterfinals in Adelaide earlier in 2025. However, he was no match for Lehecka's measured aggression, and was thrashed handily in straight sets. Jiri has flown under the radar here this week, and is looking to orchestrate a monumental surprise against his toughest opponent yet: Novak Djokovic himself.

Djokovic, meanwhile, has seen concerns expressed regarding his form. 2024 was not the best year for him, and he was dumped out of the Brisbane International by a redlining Opelka to start off his season. However, he has turned his fortunes around amazingly at Rod Laver Arena, finding his best level at slams as he so often does. However, he has been scratchy, dropping sets in his first two matches to Basavareddy and Faria. Basavareddy is yet another teenage sensation, making an appearance at the Next Gen Finals in Jeddah last year before a debut tour-level semifinal in Auckland. Although he struck the ball seamlessly during the first set, Djokovic raised his level thereafter, as the American fell victim to cramps. Djokovic played another youngster in Jaime Faria in the Round of 64, who yet again took a set off him in the second-set tiebreaker. In the end, though, the Serb's experience was overwhelming. Novak's third round, howver, was by far his best performance of the week. He steamrolled Tomas Machac - one of the Czech Republic's rising prodigies and the 26th seed - in three stark sets. Machac had not been in his best form all tournament, but hustled and ground out a victory against Opelka in his previous round. Although he was made to withstand a booming barrage of big serving, Tomas's imperious court-coverage wore the towering American down. But, ultimately, Machac was docile against the court-craft and wisdom of Djokovic.

Lehecka presents himself as an extremely dangerous opponent for the Serb. However, as proven time and time again, Novak always exceeds our expectations - his last encounter against Machac was testament to this. Even though Lehecka's controlled and calculated power will cause some trouble, the 7th seed's oodles of experience will be the deciding factor. I am backing Novak to set up a mouthwatering clash against Alcaraz in the quarters.

Prediction: Djokovic in 4