ATP Finals - Semifinal Predictions

Sinner looks to charge his way through surprise semifinalist Ruud, while Fritz tries to extend his winning streak over a red-hot Zverev.

Zverev vs Fritz

The ATP Finals is one of Alexander Zverev's favourite destinations on the tour. After clinching titles in 2018 and 2021, the German has loomed large as one of the favourites for the trophy this week. For Sascha, a running theme at the ATP Finals - the last stop of the year - has been redemption. This has been portrayed through his inspiring title runs in 2018 and 2021, where although he lost to the eventual finalists Djokovic and Medvedev in the group stages, he gained revenge over them when it mattered most: in the final. The fast conditions suit his game to a tee, and all the weapons in his arsenal seem to be firing well at the moment. Although the surface at Turin is a tad slower than previous years, Zverev has carried his terrifying form from Paris into this event seamlessly. He is yet to drop a set all week. He played his best match of the week against Carlos Alcaraz last round, denying the Spaniard any chance of a semifinal berth. In an electric encounter that was one of the highest-quality matches of the year, these two put on a show for the Italian audience. Zverev had his fair share of chances in the first set, letting seven break point opportunities slip as Carlos dragged it to a tiebreak. Although the German got the early lead in the breaker, the four-time Grand Slam champ had other ideas, levelling things up with two insane signature defensive passes. However, another loose mistake set up set point for Zverev, and at 6-5, Alcaraz made a head-scratching error of judgement as the World No. 2 raised his arms in celebration by qualifying for the semis. The second set was neck and neck, and it was one scratchy game at the start of it that handed Alex the break and ultimately decided things. While Alcaraz had plenty of opportunities to reestablish himself in the match, they came and went. The German served it out impressively in a monumental final service game. Throughout the match, Sascha was the more solid player, standing his ground in rallies and approaching the net faultlessly. His thunderous serve also earned him plenty of free points. While Carlos did pepper his usual flashes of brilliance throughout the meeting, it was an all-too-familiar story in the end, with careless errors and questionable decision-making seeing to his downfall. He leaves Turin in indifferent form. The thing that impressed me most about Zverev last night, though, was his court coverage. He chased down every Alcaraz dropshot with steely determination, and produced some stunning defensive passing shots too. The Spaniard, whose net skills are one of a kind, could only watch in disbelief as the German's long levers hooked shot after shot past him at the net.

On the other hand, Taylor Fritz is also enjoying success this week. He made the semifinals in Turin in 2022 but failed to qualify last year. He is back with a bang. Although he hasn't played his best tennis, he has done enough to secure his place in the last four. Although his opening match looked like it would be a struggle for the American, Daniil Medvedev's self-implosion made things a lot easier for Fritz, as he wrapped things up in straights. However, things fell apart in his next match against the man to beat - Jannik Sinner. Althought Taylor put up an amazing fight, he fell just short, with two breaks ultimately deciding the outcome of both sets. But he delivered the goods in his final round robin match against De Minaur. The nifty Australian had caused Fritz a lot of headaches in the past, leading their H2H 5-3. The first set saw a familiar pattern of play unfold, with the Demon frustrating the American, drawing him into taxing rallies and producing some mindblowing defence. Taylor simply could not breach the Aussie's defences, and was having trouble dealing with his flat, skidding groundstrokes. In the end, Fritz regrouped nicely, grabbing the second set in the nick of time and finish strong in the third as Demon faltered.

Lately, Fritz has had Zverev in a chokehold. Although Sascha won their first match of 2024 in Rome, the American has since turned the tables, coming back from two-sets-to-love down against Zverev at Wimbledon before beating him in his run to the US Open final. Not long after, he got the better of him again at the Laver Cup. In all honesty, however, Zverev was not at his best in those encounters. At Wimbledon, he was struggling with a knee injury sustained in his previous round. At the Laver Cup, he was suffering from pneumonia, and was in hospital the previous day citing severe fever. It was a miracle he even took to the court that day. However, Fritz definitely has the key to victory against Sascha and even has a mental edge over him. In their previous meetings, the American has found the right balance of aggression, pressing Alexander's timid defences until they finally give way. To win this match, Zverev cannot afford to get passive at any moment. Nonetheless, I am trusting Zverev to raise his game. The court speed will definitely benefit him, as his serve and backhand pack a bit more punch that Fritz's. His experience at this event will pay dividends. Even though Taylor been consistent, he looked rattled against De Minaur. Sascha loves these conditions and has been playing domineeringly enough to get the win here.

Prediction: Zverev in 3

Sinner vs Ruud

What a year Jannik Sinner is having. The Italian has seen a meteoric rise to the tennis pinnacle in 2024, winning two Grand Slams and amassing an astonishing 91.5% win percentage throughout the year. With three of his six losses coming against his arch-nemesis Alcaraz, Sinner's season has been reminiscent of some of the all-time greats in Roger Federer in 2006 and Novak Djokovic in 2015. With Alcaraz eliminated and only two matches left in sight, Jannik looks to end his year on a perfect note. He has been the overwhelming favourite for the title this week, and has orchestrated his home crowd beautifully with some imperious tennis. Although not necessarily at his best, the Italian is the second man alongside Zverev to go 6/6 in sets. In his opener against Alex De Minaur, Sinner was down an early break but managed to navigate through the Aussie's defences as the match wore on. His next match saw a repeat of the US Open Final, and it was a similar result as he routed Fritz for the loss of just eight games. His final round robin clash was against Daniil Medvedev. The Russian has been in a bad headspace following a career-worst year, and looked helpless against the Italian on Friday as Sinner completed his remarkable head-to-head reversal and took the lead in his H2H against Daniil for the first time. Overall, Sinner's unwavering and pin-point aggression has been a league above his rivals this week, and the difference between his standard and the rest of the Top 8 is as clear as day.

Casper Ruud has turned his fortunes around spectacularly this week. By securing his third semifinal berth in Turin, the Norwegian has become just the third man after Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka to reach the semifinals in all of his first three appearances at the season-ending championships. Superficially, this seems like an extremely surprising statistic - indoor hard-court is one of Casper's worst surfaces, second only to grass, and he has been in horrific form heading into the Finals, losing 7 of his last 8 matches. But should we really be that surprised? Ruud's resume at this venue says otherwise. In his last two appearances, he made the semifinals and final respectively, and although he has zero Top 20 wins on indoor hard-courts outside this tournament, he has won 7 of his 12 matches here. This is the definition of peaking at the right moment. His opening win against Alcaraz was one of the upsets of the year. In form poorer than ever, no one expected Casper to beat Carlos as convincingly as he did. The Norwegian played measured tennis, racing out of the blocks by winning the first set 6-1. He blasted his heavy forehand into corners and served impeccably. Alcaraz was obviously feeling ill, though, and although he fought hard, eventually succumbed with a heap of lackadaisical unforced errors. His movement was lethargic and even his celebrations seemed uncharacteristically muted. However, Ruud must be given credit for how well he took advantage of the situation. Although he was defeated by a redlining Zverev in his next match, he did well to take things to a tiebreak in the first set. In his third instalment of the week, Ruud extended his dominance over Andrey Rublev at this event in three sets. He is now 3-0 against the Russian in Turin. The factor that has stood out the most this week for Ruud has been his serve. Although it is usually overlooked, it has been imposing so far. He won 80% of his first serve points against Rublev, with his fastest serve of the week clocking in at 215 km/hr. Although Rublev is not the best returner, these are formidable numbers nonetheless. As always, Ruud has performed mightily well at the last tournament of the year. Can he take it even further this time?

It doesn't look likely. Although his upset of Alcaraz will have instilled a lot of confidence in thr World No. 7, Sinner seems insurmountable at the moment. Casper's serve, as powerful as it has looked this week, will be exposed by the calibre of the Italian's return, who is one of - if not the - best returners in the sport right now. His backhand, which has historically been his weakest shot, will be devoured by Sinner's unflinching pace and pressure, and his loopy strokes leave him vulnerable to attack. Overall, Jannik's ballstriking is a step too far for Ruud.

Prediction: Sinner in 2